Saturday, March 15, 2008
The Pac 10 Tournament is officially over and you know what that means... It's time to put on our dancin' shoes and boogie, NCAA-style!

Before we dive into my picks for who's going where, I should point out that it was a great tournament to watch. People love upsets, for sure, but the basketball is always better in the end, in my opinion, when you have fewer upsets.

The Pac 10 tournament saw a lot of great games, beginning with the California nail-biter over Washington. Who would have thought that when it was all said and done, that would have been the only upset of the entire tournament (a 9 seed over an 8 seed).

So now that we are just waiting until the selection committee does their thing, Sunday at 3 PM, what do we think about the Pac 10, and their chances. I will briefly lend my insights.

For starters, I think that the professionals are off base, as nearly all of them are still predicting the Pac 10 to get in seven teams. By my estimation, there has already too many upsets to allow for it. Add the fact that, I've noticed that the only "automatic" at-large bids go to teams with an RPI of 35 of less, it doesn't look good for several Pac 10 teams.

Who do I think will get snubbed? Arizona Stae is looking to be NIT bound after their first round loss to USC. I had them having to win TWO games in the Pac 10 tournament if they were going to get in the dance. They won zero. With an RPI of 83, I can't see how the committee is going to take them over some other teams with better RPI numbers, even from lesser conferences.

Still, I think Oregon will get the nod, despite their marginal RPI, due to the conference they play in and the way they played down the stretch.

So here's how I see the seedings going tomorrow, and my official prediction as to how far they WILL go. My prediction is a measure of the team and how I think they are likely to fair in the tournament, not giving the best case scenario or the worst case scenario.

UCLA
#1 (West). I have said all along that they will be cutting down the nets, so I'm going to stick with it. Prediction...National Champions (of course, that doesn't leave me much room for error, does it?)

Stanford
#3 (South). These guys have all the talent they need for a title run, but you can bet that everyone will be looking at film of how UCLA played them, give that thwe Lopez brothers can beat everyone but UCLA. Prediction... Elite 8

Washington State
#6 (Mid West). Defense wins championships and it would be enough for these guys to do better in the tournamnt this year... Unfortunately, their third round opponent is likely to an offensive juggernaut like Memphis. Prediction... Sweet 16

Southern Cal
#5 (East). Tough draw to go across the country bbut that is what i think will happen if USC get's a number 5 seed. The committee would love to set up another match between USC and Stanford or USC and UCLA, but they won't have two LA schools playing out west, and if Stanford get's a number 3 and USC get's a number 5, they would play each other too early in the tournament. Stll this is my bracket buster team. they are the most athletic team in the west, and I think they will play like it. Prediction: Elite 8 (don't hate the messenger)

Arizona
#10 (South). I was originally going to set them in the West with UCLA, but I think the committee will put them in due to their Strength of Schedule and RPI numbers, but they are not overly impressed with their play as of late. Personally, I think this Arizona team will win a game, but won't stay long. They're just too inconsistent. Prediction: Loss in the second round.

Oregon
#12 (West). Oregon has played pretty well this season, including twice against UCLA. THIS is the game that I think the committee would like to set up. Unfortunately, I don't see it going that far, since I strongly believe the number two seed in the West is going to be Texas. I think Oregon is going to be the sole team in the Pac 10 that lacks the leadership in the big game. This will prevent them from getting an upset in the first round, although I wouldn't be suprised if they, too, did some damage. Lord knows they have the talent. Prediction: Loss in the First Round.

Well, there ya have it. My humble thoughts of how a loaded Pac 10 is going to get set up to succeed, or fail in the tournament... and yes, I have THREE Pac 10 teams comprising the Elite 8. I'll look forward to seeing haw it all plays out, tomorrow, and for the next several weeks.

Comments

DM14