Well, One more week in the books and there is no more clarity this week as to who will be in the tournament and who will not. The Pac 10, which is good enough to have possibly eight teams in the dance, faces a perplexing challenge in that no Pac 10 team has ever made the tournament with a sub .500 in conference record. If this holds true again this year, we might only see five or six teams in the tournament. Given the strength of the Pac 10 this season, I suspect it will change and we will see seven Pac 10 teams in the dance come mid March.

In the same vein as espn, let's take a brief look at the teams and where they are likely to be. This will be a bit more condensed than last weeks article.

Who's in?

UCLA is going to be a #1 or #2, and they certainly strengthened their hold on a #1 with two wins against the Oregon schools coupled with losses by Duke, Memphis, and Kansas. UCLA will enter this week ranked #3 or #4, depending on how far Memphis will drop.

Stanford is looking like a solid #2 seed, but can move up into a #1 if they win out (which would most likely include two more wins against UCLA).

Washington State isn't doing themselves any favors for seeding purposes. Another split with the Arizona schools, this time at home, isn't going to help their positioning for the tournament, unless they win their last three games and do well in the Pac 10 tournament. Currently, I see Washington State sitting firmly in a #6 seed.

Southern Cal is looking better with their back to back home wins against the Oregon schools. They have been inconsistent this season, but given that their losses have been generally close to teams like Memphis or Kansas, and they have some big wins against some very good teams as well, I look for USC to be aligning themselves as a possible #6 seed but is likely to either move up or down as they conclude their schedule with a very difficult trip to the Arizona schools and at home to the bay area.

Arizona is confusing. They will be in the dance even if they finish below .500 in conference. UA has the #1 strength of schedule in the country so the committee is likely to look at their overall record, currently 17-10, more than their conference record. UA has games against UCLA, USC, Oregon, and Oregon State left, and if they go 2-2 they're in regardless of what they do in the Pac 10 tourney. If they go 1-3, I still thing they get in, but as a very high seed. My impression is that UA will end up going 2-2 and depending on how they finish the Pac 10 tournament, they should get a #7 seed.


On the Bubble

Arizona State has a .500 Pac 10 record and a decent record overall, but unlike Arizona, ASU has not had the great non conference schedule, which minimalizes, to some extent, their great start. With games against UCLA, USC, AT Oregon, and AT Oregon State, USC will need to finish 2-2 to finish with a .500 Pac 10 record in order to be in the dance. Currently I see a split with the LA schools and a split in Oregon so I think they will get in to the dance, making it six.

California is going to have a very difficult road to the tournament. At 6-8 in the Pac 10, they are sure to need to go 3-1 in their remaining four games to see the NCAA tournament, and given that those games will include playing at home against UCLA and USC and playing on the road at washington and Washington State, although it certainly isn't impossible, it is going to be very difficult. Right now, I see Cal as an NIT team.

Oregon would seem to have the most difficult task of the bubble teams. At 6-9, they have one shot to get into the NCAA tournament and that's to win their final three Pac 10 games. This chore might not be quite as difficult as one would think. First, Oregon goes on the road to Corvalis in what should be a win against their rival, Oregon State. Then, Oregon returns home to fact Arizona and Arizona State. Although it is unlikely that they would win both of these games, it's not like their playing the LA schools. The Arizona schools have shown some inconsistency and playing at the PIT, which is an always difficult place to play, I would say it's certainly possible. Of course, if they do that, they might be knocking ASU out of the dance unless they can beat either USC or UCLA. Basically, Oregon has the best chance, IMO of being the #7 team from the Pac 10 to be in the NCAA tournament, not because of their current standing, but because of their remaining schedule, although, I must say, at this point, it appears to be a long shot.

Washington is highly unlikely to be selected for the dance. Like Oregon, they must win their remaining three games. The good news is that if they win their remaining three games, I believe a 9-9 UW will definitely get in, as they would have to beat Stanford, Cal, and Washington State ALL ON THE ROAD. Now, in reality, I see no way that this happens, but if it were to happen, the committee would have no choice. UW's RPI woud be up around #50 and they would have a .500 record in the toughest conference in the nation. Throw in BIG road wins against Stanford, and Washington State, two NCAA automatics, and I think they'd be set. Still, I put them on the bubble because the opportunity is there, but it's not a very realistic one.

OUT

Oregon State has only one question remaining. Will they ruin Oregon or ASU's season, because if they beat either of those teams, they might be NIT bound as a punishment for losing to a team that is currently ranked somewhere in the 250 range.

So, to recap, here's how I have it as of today...

IN
UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, and Arizona

On the Bubble
Arizona State, California, Oregon, and Washington

OUT
Oregon State


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