Florida, UCLA, Georgetown, and Ohio State. The field is down to its Final Four. Now the question... who's gonna take home the prize?

Some people will spend day and night, leading up to the game, analyzing statistical comparisons of the teams, and cross checking charts and graphs. I know, because I just spent the better part of two hours doing that very thing, but then it occurred to me. The statistics, with very few exceptions, mean little.

This time of the year, you are matching up two teams who not only have not played, generally, but they are also from different conferences. This, in itself, renders the statistical comparison useless. For instance, Florida is one of the better teams in the country in defending the three point shot, and UCLA is middle of the road, but UCLA's statistic is much more impressive when you take into consideration that the Pac 10 is the best in three point efficiency and the Big 12 is nearly the worst as a conference.

So what does matter? Matchups? Tendencies? Turnovers? Free throw shooting? I'd say that, along with heart and ability to impose ones will is about all that matters.

So looking at the matchups we have before us, Florida versus UCLA. This has all of the makings of an epic battle between two teams that couldn't be more different, yet similar in many respects. If you look at the statistics, Florida appears that they will dominate, leading in nearly every category including Free throws attempted (#17 in the nation), and shooting percentage (#1 in the nation). So what does UCLA have in their favor? Aside from the fact that UCLA is very good with forcing turnovers and is equally good at taking care of the ball, they might be the most gritty bunch of kids in America, and certainly the most hungry. All season long, they have talked about revenge, and they have played the entire season with the idea of giving Florida another look at a much improved defensive UCLA. They got their wish, but should they be careful of what they wish for?

So who's gonna win? well, I suppose it comes down to who has the most heart, and who can impose their will. If UCLA can keep the game in the 60's, force turnovers like they did against Kansas, and hit their free throws, the game is UCLA's to lose. If, however, the game gets in the 70's and UCLA finds itself in foul trouble, they are doomed to another loss at the hands of Florida.

As for the other matchup, Ohio State versus Georgetown, the matchup is a bit less compelling as the story lines are less apparent, but here, you also have an interesting matchup of contrasting styles. Both are defensive oriented teams, but if you look closer at it, you can see that Ohio State focuses their defensive strength around interior defense whereas, Georgetown is more of a perimeter defender. This, too, should be a mismatch for Ohio State. Along with the fact that they dominate, statistically, against Georgetown, they also have a mismatch on the inside, which is their bread and butter. Add to that, Ohio State seems to play better when Oden is out of the game, this makes Ohio State extremely dangerous.

Sounds like a slam dunk right? Florida and Ohio State both represents matchup problems for UCLA and Georgetown so both should win relatively easily?

Well, I don't know about anyone else, but I'm taking the heart and grittiness of UCLA and Georgetown to play in the finals for the national Championship, both will undoubtedly be upsets in the mind of the odds makers, but I have watched UCLA and Georgetown all season long so if it's all the same to you, I'll stick with the teams I picked in the beginning.

Labels: CollegeFix, Dawgman14